GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS Carolyn Pumphrey Editor May 2008 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. For more than ten years, it has warned of the potential security implications of climate change. The United States continues to be involved in myriad international conflicts: military operations in the Yemen; trade policy jousting with China; and an increasingly consequential Arctic becoming a new arena among Great Power competitors. Naval Forces addresses both the near- and long-term implications for U.S. naval forces in each of the four areas of the TOR, and provides corresponding findings and recommendations. ), Member, Military Advisory Board, Center for Naval Analyses Corporation report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, before the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, May 9, 2007. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. 5 [Washington]: President of the U.S http://nssarchive.us/NSSR/1991.pdf, 36 United States. This consensus study assessed the national security implications of climate change for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. The papers in this volume span a suite of climate change repercussions, paying particular attention to national security and human health aspects. The study examined the potential impact climate change will have on future U.S. naval and allied force operations and capabilities and assessed the robustness of the Department of Defense’s infrastructure for supporting naval operations and … 90-105, 4 Sisk, Richard. Intelligence analysts from the National Security … His research focuses on critical theoretical approaches to security and their application to environmental change, Australian security policy, climate politics, and security dynamics in Asia and the Pacific. Climate change was first publicly recognized as a major concern for the Pentagon in May 1990, when the U.S. Often the Director of National Intelligence’s testimony may contradict an administration’s official view of current threats, as was recently seen in the debate between former DNI Dan Coates and President Trump with regards to ISIS.7 Thus, the constant tug and pull between the executive and legislative branch will continue to exist, with congressional hearings critiquing executive policies and funding mechanisms in tension with executive orders. Equally, failure to address these issues in the relevant fora will exacerbate the security implications of climate change. Climate change and its resulting effects are likely to pose wide-ranging national security challenges for the United States and other countries over the next 20 years through the following pathways:  Threats to the stability of countries. THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE December 2017 In its 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) officially recognized climate change as a factor worthy of consideration in future national security planning. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change. To conclude, the impact of climate change on national security for the United States requires defining the threat in strategic documents, budgeting for weather damage and degradation, and reconstituting an arctic strategy to meet this arena’s changing dynamics across economic and military interests. The National Security Implications of Climate Change: Redefining Threats, Bolstering Budgets, and Mobilizing the Arctic, How the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Impacts the United States, and Why the United States Must Embrace its Entry into Force, The Rule of Law Report: A story of preemption, political symbolism, and dialogue in the European Union, Strategic Demilitarization in Sri Lanka: Paradoxes and Trajectories, Standing Rock Protests and the Struggle for Tribal Sovereignty. Recent actions and statements by members of Congress, members of the UN Security Council, and retired U.S. military officers have drawn attention to the consequences of climate change… “The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires,” Yale Climate Connections, November 13, 2018. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/11/the-many-ways-climate-change-worsens-california-wildfires/, 16 “Why is Climate Change Costing the Air Force Billions,” PBS, April 2019. https://www.pbs.org/ wnet/peril-and-promise/2019/04/why-is-climate-change-costing-the-air-force-billions/, 17 Miller, James N. and Michael O’Hanlon, “Quality Over Quantity: U.S. Military Strategy and Spending in the Trump Years,” Brookings Institute, January 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/FP_20190103_military_strategy_spending.pdf, 18 Ratnam, Gopal and Kate Brannen, “Against Other Threats, Obama’s Security Budget Sticks to Asia- Pacific Pivot,” Foreign Policy, February 2, 2015. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/02/793982budget-asia-pacific-syria-iraq-russia-ukraine/, 19 Reif, Kingston. It is an outcome of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held during April 28-30, 2011 in Dubrovnik, Croatia, sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program.  Heightened social and political tensions. © Copyright 2018, Journal of International Affairs. States National Security October 2003 By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall Imagining the Unthinkable The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the construction of the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is likely to intensify because Ethiopia plans to begin filling the reservoir in 2017.11, The impending threat of climate-driven civil unrest, or even outright conflict, is plausible, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.12 A Department of Defense report specifically named the Chad Basin and Tanzania as priorities for military-to-military defense environmental international cooperation program candidates.13 Climate change will affect smaller, poorer countries most drastically.14 As a result, the United States will be forced to respond to allies with both aid and relying on military partnerships for humanitarian missions. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted. Naval Forces The leaders of the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps have recognized the potential impact of climate change on naval forces' missions and have positioned their organizations to make adaptive changes. Climate change threatens not only military material, but also training areas and infrastructure. … In the short-term, the occurrence of resource scarcity such as water shortages is already becoming more prevalent. As the President has made very clear, no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change, as we are already seeing these threats in communities across the country. Learn about the impact and consequences of climate change and global warming for the environment and our lives. June 2013. 12 Homer-Dixon, Thomas, Environmental Scarcity and Intergroup Conflict, World Security: Challenges for a New Century. Climate change will be the defining test of global civilization in the twenty-first century. His research focuses on critical theoretical approaches to security and their application to environmental change, Australian security policy, climate politics, and security dynamics in Asia and the Pacific. This memorandum does not assess effects on the homeland, nor does it evaluate the science of the IPCC reports. “Russia is Testing Nuclear Weapons at Remote Artic Bases, Despite Global Ban, U.S. Says,” Newsweek, May 30, 2019. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nuclear-weapons-testing-arctic-us-claims-low-yield-ban-1439109, 31 Houghton, Vince, “The U.S. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. https://www.northcom.mil/About-USNORTHCOM/, 30 Brennan, David. The IPCC documents the threat of gradual climate change and its impact to food supplies and other resources of importance to humans will not be so severe as to create security threats. Climate Change and the National Defense Authorization Act (FY18-FY20), June 2020; Climate Change Implications for U.S. Military Aircraft, August 2019; The U.S. Department of Defense’s Forthcoming Climate Change Vulnerability Report: What to Expect and How Congress Should Use It, November 2018 This is complicated: The second-order effects of attempts to mitigate climate change will have seismic effects for global energy systems. One of the biggest threats I identified was the possibility of mass migration driven by climate change. The current reprogramming caps are at $10 million for military personnel, $20 million for operation and maintenance, $20 million for procurement, and $10 million for research, development, test, and evaluation.37 These caps should be adjusted to a much higher level if the policy is to counter a clear and recognized danger, such as climate change. frequency of intense storms in the future). At the national level, UN Environment will develop and deploy a state-of-the-art methodology to help stakeholders map and prioritize climate change and security hotspots. Linking the two above points enables the strategy such that when a climate-linked situation arises resources under the budget may be reassigned. Testimony from Rod Schoonover: 'The National Security Implications of Climate Change' Updated Jun 8, 2019 at 10:45 AM EST The assessment judged that global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security. Optimists assert that the benefits from technological innovation will be able to … The Security Council debate on 17 April was a … While the unclassified Project Iceworm demonstrated that NATO, under American leadership, attempted to build a network of nuclear weapons facilities in Greenland, the project was eventually shuttered in 1966 due to its lack of feasibility.31 Today, however, new technology may unlock the possibility of a nuclear Arctic. A forward presence is required by the Coast Guard to uphold sovereignty. For nearly a decade, Dr. Schoonover has analyzed impacts of issues at the intersection of science and national security; in particular the national security implications of climate change, global ecological change, water and food security, and emergent and disruptive technologies. Climate change poses security risks, according to decades of intelligence reports: Intelligence analysts have agreed since the late 80s that climate change poses serious security risks. From now on a stable climate is no longer a valid planning consideration. 6)", Lectures of Opportunity: "Navy Foreign Area Officer Capabilities Brief", Naval War College and Brown University Co-host 4th Annual Civilian-Military Humanitarian Response Workshop, Issues in National Security: "National Security and Space", Issues in National Security: "Civil-Military Relationships", Arctic security in an age of climate change. This virtual event is open to the general public for remote viewing. Although climate change is first and foremost dealt within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and now also under the Paris agreement, the security implications of climate change do not have an institutional home within the United Nations system, and hence remain largely unaddressed, in spite of the urgency of the threat it poses to peace and security in several regions. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Domestically, both states and the federal government have to consider the how adverse climate events such as wildfires will be exacerbated by climate change.15. U.S. National Security. Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions—that threaten domestic stability in a number of countries. The climate century is upon us: the earth is warming, humans are to blame, and we must take immediate action now to prepare for climate change’s massively disruptive consequences. 2015. 2 Minute Read The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole. While the current defense budget is nominally intended to modernize the force, it does not adequately address the threat of climate change on equipment even though it upgrades unit-by-unit readiness and increases force size and structure.17 Budgets, by their nature, signal the priorities of an administration. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Furthermore, this omission directly contradicts the national security strategies of prior administrations that recognized climate change as a threat to U.S. interests. 2017. [Washington]: President of the U.S https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf, 35 United States. The increasing frequency and intensity of major storms has caused direct material and economic damage to the armed forces: following Hurricane Michael in October 2018 alone, Offutt Air Force Base required $5 billion in repairs.16 Even with $750 billion in funding, the U.S. defense budget fails to adequately address the costs of climate change. In fact, the changing climate can be seen as a high-probability, high-impact security threat presenting new risks around the world. Budget debates are focused on fifth generation fighter jets and upgrading the nuclear triad, but neither will matter if the United States does not have capacity to project power or maintain basic security in a world made unstable by the climate. Climate changes uniquely affects U.S. Northern Command, whose mission is protecting the homeland, and in particular Alaska and other northern territories, from potential state actors seeking to spy on, invade, or disrupt the United States.29 Given their aspirations in the Arctic, Russia and China are the obvious regional competitors. The “New Era” 1991 national security strategy of President George H.W. 28 U.S. Coast Guard, “Timeline of Coast Guard Organizational History” United States Department of Homeland Security. As a direct follow-up to the G7 report, UN Environment has established a partnership with the EU to address the security implications of climate change in two pilot countries. Advancing U.S. economic, technological, environmental, security and defense interests in this internationally competitive environment requires a deeper understanding of the “blue” or ocean economy and how that connects to the U.S. naval and national security concerns. Over the past three years climate change has been explicitly identified in national security assessments as a long-term threat to security. The Coast Guard’s responsibilities in the Arctic are to ensure “the homeland security, safety, and environmental stewardship of U.S. waters.”22 The essence of the Coast Guard’s strategy is founded on three main pillars: enhancing its capability to operate in such a dynamic environment; strengthening and enforcing the international rules-based order; and innovating and adapting through the promotion of resilience and prosperity. Implications of climate change for Australia's national security On 14 June 2017 the Senate referred the following matter to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee for inquiry and report by 4 December 2017: Implications of climate change for Australia’s national security. Chris Farnham is the presenter of the National Security Podcast.  Negative impacts on investments and economic competitiveness. Videos from this event include: U.S. For more than ten years, it has warned of the potential security implications of climate change. This August, Russia installed a nuclear power station in the Arctic, despite the concerns of activists over possible accidents with detrimental long-term environmental effects.32. (2019).ht tps: / /www.cong res s .gov/ bi l l /116th- cong res s / house-bi l l /2500/ t e x t#toc - H42DC506687994015B0371FF0D6C134B2. 1991. Indeed, both the congressionally-mandated 2018 National Climate Assessment (NCA) and United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports make clear that … Increasingly, the military is used in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief roles whose importance will be compounded by the increased operational tempo due to the nature of climate change.2 The military must maintain its level of readiness to address current and diverse challenges spanning counterinsurgency and stability operations, without losing sight of the necessary changes to win future wars. Some present information on historically observed changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation) while others project changes into the future based on alternative scenarios (e.g. 2017. This consensus study assessed the national security implications of climate change for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. “Trump Budget Boosts Nuclear Efforts,” Arms Control Today, April 2019. https:// www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-04/news/trump-budget-boosts-nuclear-efforts, 20 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller) “Defense Budget Overview: United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request” Department of Defense, March 2019. https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2020/fy2020_Budget_Request_ Overview_Book..pdf, 21 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, “Reports on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense” Department of Defense, January 2019. https://www. 2810, 115th Cong. Considering climate change a threat is essential in order to maintain a high level of combat readiness when the American military will be called upon to serve in a variety of roles. Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change Key Points Climate Change and the National Defense Authorization Act (FY18-FY20), June 2020; Climate Change Implications for U.S. Military Aircraft, August 2019; The U.S. Department of Defense’s Forthcoming Climate Change Vulnerability Report: What to Expect and How Congress Should Use It, November 2018 reed.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Sec%20335%20RTC%20on%20Effects%20of%20a%20Changing%20 Climate%20to%20DOD2.pdf, 22 U.S. Coast Guard, United States Coast Guard Arctic Strategy, April 2019. https://www.uscg.mil/ Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategic_Outlook_APR_2019.pdf, 23 Osthagen, Andreas. St. Martin’s Press: New York, NY 1994. Climate change is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and is impacting the stability in areas of the world both where the United States Armed Forces are operating today, and where strategic implications for future conflict exists. “What the New US Coast Guard Strategy Tells Us About the Arctic Anno 2019,” High North News, April 25, 2019. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/what-new-us-coast-guard-strategy-tells-us-about-arctic-anno-2019, 24 U.S. Coast Guard, United States Coast Guard Arctic Strategy, April 2019. https://www.uscg.mil/ Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategic_Outlook_APR_2019.pdf, 25 Martinez, Luis, “Why the US Navy sails past disputed artificial islands claimed by China,” ABC News, May 6, 2019. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy-sails-past-disputed-artificial-islands-claimed/story?id=60993256, 26 People’s Republic of China, China’s Arctic Policy, January 2018. http://www.scio.gov.cn/ zfbps/32832/Document/1618243/1618243.htm, 27 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, H.R. Naval Forces addresses both the near- and long-term implications for U.S. naval forces in each of the four areas of the TOR, and provides corresponding findings and recommendations. src=, Newport, RI Pell bridge with flowers in background, Books in Learning Commons, , The National Security Significance of a Changing Climate: Risk and Resilience in the 21st Century. 2 February 2017. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/february/shift-coast-guard-dod. It is an outcome of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held during April 28-30, 2011 in Dubrovnik, Croatia, sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program. Each presidential administration must submit the report to Congress every year, unless a waiver is granted. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. In terms of the Arctic, the Coast Guard hangs its hat on ‘upholding sovereignty’ as the central component of its arctic vision.23, China and Russia have both identified the Arctic as a strategic priority, and have consequently invested in their capabilities and capacities to exert influence.24 China’s extraterritorial claims, mobilization of synthetic islands, and its economic interests in controlling access to trade routes and resources may all contribute to future confrontation.25 Recognizing the reality of global warming, China is developing its Polar Silk Road with a strengthened policy towards the Arctic region.26 Russia, meanwhile, has established its Arctic Command, the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command, stationing surface-to-air missile capabilities in the region and improving or creating from scratch multiple deep-water ports and airfields to project power in the region.27. Sea levels first DoD academic institution to host an open event exploring national. 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